The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the WHO African Region: a predictive model

May 21, 2020

“The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the
predictions presented here are derived using a Markov Chain Model, with the transition states and country-specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size.

The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweigh any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.”

READ FULL DOCUMENT

RECENT POSTS

In Memoriam: Professor Father Michael J. Kelly, 1929 – 2021

In Memoriam: Professor Father Michael J. Kelly, SJ 1929 –...

Webinar 20: Conversations on COVID-19 – Vaccines: the end of the Covid-19 Pandemic?

Webinar 20: Conversations on COVID-19 – Vaccines: the...

Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Ireland Launch – 2020

Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Ireland...

The Irish Aid Annual Professor Father Michael Kelly Lecture – 2020

The Irish Aid Annual Professor Father Michael Kelly Lecture...

GLOBAL HEALTH SIMULATION – 2020

GLOBAL HEALTH SIMULATION REGISTER YOUR INTEREST IN THE...

ESTHER Partnerships Forum 2020 – Live Web Event

A Bright Future for Health Partnerships Date of...

SEARCH HERE

Subscribe to Newsletter

Sign up to become a member and receive our weekly updates